At present, the global lithography machine has been completely monopolized by ASML in the Netherlands, Nikon and Canon in Japan. Below the 10nm node, ASML firmly occupies 100% of the market, and it is difficult for competitors in the same industry such as modbus over rs485 Canon and Nikon to break this situation. Therefore, if chip manufacturers want to produce chips below 10nm, they must have EUV lithography machines supplied by ASML and corresponding support services. At present, the most advanced EUV lithography machine can manufacture chips with less than 7nm process, and each can sell for 100 million US dollars.
Even if you have money, you can't just buy what you want.
In early March, the Dutch government proposed to restrict the export of immersion DUV lithography machines, which is expected to be announced before summer. Last year, my country imported more than 500 billion integrated circuits, and nearly two-thirds of the chips produced in the world were sold to China. China has such a huge market demand. The further tightening of export controls on cutting-edge chip manufacturing equipment is aimed at controlling the development of China's semiconductor technology and allowing China to continue to import chips at high prices.
As can be seen from ASML’s 2025 market forecast, ASML’s 2025 market target is 70 submerged DUVs and 190 dry DUVs at the lowest level; 87 immersion DUVs and 290 dry DUVs at the highest level. ; The target sales volume of EUV has hardly changed.
Because ASML's EUV is fully produced and sold, ASML's EUV lithography machine will be snatched away by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel as soon as it is produced, so its sales have hardly changed. However, the sales volume of DUVs has changed greatly. The difference between the high and low standards of dry DUVs is about 100 units. The main reason is the Chinese market. The Netherlands participates in the equipment embargo against China, and ASML will lose sales of these DUV lithography machines.
The chip technology corresponding to 193nm ArF dry is 110~65nm.
The chip technology corresponding to 193nm ArF immersion is 45~7nm. Chip process equipment below 14nm is an advanced process.
Below 7nm, Chinese companies are already subject to many restrictions; for the equipment required for 65nm~110nm and above, Chinese companies can do it themselves. Therefore, 28nm~45nm is the field of offense and defense. If the Netherlands restricts the export of immersion DUV lithography machines, it means that Chinese companies need to make up for the 28~45nm within one or two years.
Can domestic lithography machines save China's semiconductor industry?
Engaging in lithography machines must have the spirit of engaging in nuclear bombs, but this spirit alone is not enough! After all, the lithography machine is not a nuclear bomb. The lithography machine has been improved from a test machine to a mass production machine, and it needs to be combined with the production line for test production. These steps cannot be carried out in secret. ASML's ability to produce the world's most advanced lithography machines is also the result of decades of unremitting innovation and the cooperation of global component suppliers. Thousands of ASML equipment have been running in various FABs around the world for several years, but they still have a large number of engineers to continuously optimize the previous generations of lithography machines.
Backward technology does not need to be kept secret, and most of the parts of domestic lithography machines rely on imports from the United States and Japan, and foreign countries are also very clear about the research and development progress of my country's lithography machines. If you want to hide your strength, you need to develop the entire industry chain of the chip industry.
At present, the well-known lithography machine manufacturer in China is Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd. (SMEE). The most precise processing process of the lithography machine produced is 28nm, but the 28nm DUV lithography machine has not achieved mass production. The mass production is a 90nm lithography machine, but the upstream and downstream process cooperation and chip yield are unknown. 28-110nm is almost a process range with the largest demand for domestic chip manufacturing, and 28nm is a key node. However, the success of the prototype is announced, and there is still a long way to go before the production line and mass production of 28nm lithography machines.
my country has made great progress in the basic research of lithography machines, but it is undeniable that there is still a big gap between my country's lithography machine technology and the international top level.
"A single thread does not make a thread, and a single tree does not make a forest." The research and development of lithography machines requires the assistance and cooperation of multiple countries. More than 90% of ASML’s components are imported from other countries. For example, the light source equipment comes from American companies, and the lenses come from German Zeiss. Affected by the technical blockade, it is difficult for us to import core components of lithography machines from other countries, and some components also need to overcome technical barriers by ourselves, which greatly increases the difficulty of research and development.
The semiconductor industry has entered a technical bottleneck period. After the production process enters the 10nm node, Moore's Law gradually fails. industrial iot gateway Before the emergence of new technologies, the advantages of the leaders will be gradually eroded, and it is only a matter of time before the latecomers gradually catch up. "Trying to block someone else's way will only end up blocking your own."
What we need is technology, talent, capital, and time. It is difficult to get rid of the "stuck neck", but you know, the ancestors said: "There is nothing difficult in the world, as long as there is a heart."
この記事をシェア
